BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — Attacks against civilian and military bases in Colombia’s southwestern region have raised security concerns as the country heads into a May presidential election in which crime is expected to be one of the top voter concerns.
Rebel groups have carried out 26 explosive and drone attacks since Friday, including Saturday’s deadly explosion on a highway between the cities of Cali and Popayan, according to Colombia’s defense ministry. The death toll in Monday’s explosion has reached 21.
Violence is not a new thing in the district. Illegal groups have sought to control the region for decades, considering it strategic for illegal activities, such as illegal mining and drug trafficking, cultivation of coca leaves, and raw materials for cocaine.
Authorities have blamed a group known as FARC-EMC for the deadly explosion near a tunnel on the Pan-American Highway. The group is led by Nestor Vera – commonly known as Ivan Mordisco – a former member of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known by its Spanish acronym FARC, which refused to join the 2016 peace deal with the nation’s government.
Sergio Guzman, a political risk analyst in Colombia’s capital Bogota, said Mordisco’s group may be trying to show it has the capacity to do serious damage and “establish its credibility” with Colombia’s next government as it positions itself for future negotiations.
“Part of what they’re doing is leveraging the future,” Guzman said.
Led by President Gustavo Petro, a former member of a guerrilla group, the Colombian government has attempted to negotiate peace with the nation’s remaining rebel groups through a strategy known as “total peace.”
The government has offered a truce to various groups in an attempt to promote peace talks, but analysts say the strategy has failed, as these groups have used the truce to regroup, rearm and strengthen their grip on communities.
Groups like the FARC-EMC are known for taxing the residents of areas under their control, and forcibly recruiting young people into their ranks.
“The government’s peace policy has been naive,” said Javier Garre, a political science professor at Colombia’s Externado University. “They thought that if they took a condescending approach to these groups, they would get a positive response.”
In late 2023, the FARC-EMC entered into peace talks with the Colombian government. But the faction led by Mordisco abandoned the talks in April 2024 and has been fighting the Colombian government ever since.
Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the Mordisco group is particularly strong in the provinces of Cauca and Valle del Cauca, where it is fighting for control of drug-trafficking routes and illegal gold mines.
For the past two years, the Mordisco group has also used drone attacks and car bombs to respond to Colombian military attacks in Mike Canyon, a remote area covered in coca fields controlled by the FARC-EMC.
Dickinson said the recent attacks in southwestern Colombia are a way for the group to show it can continue its “asymmetric warfare” against the government.
Colombia’s defense minister said on Sunday that kidnappings and blockades imposed on communities by rebel groups have decreased in the past year due to government action.
But the government’s comprehensive peace strategy has come under fire from the opposition, whose candidates are hoping to capitalize on the nation’s security woes by promising to get tough on crime.
Petro is barred by Colombia’s constitution from running for another term. But his party’s candidate, Ivan Cepeda, has vowed to continue peace talks with the rebel group.
Cepeda told X that he rejected the recent attacks in southwestern Colombia, and called on authorities to investigate whether they were part of an attempt to interfere in the election.
“It is worrying that these acts of terrorism are taking place in a region where there is considerable support for our political project,” Cepeda said.
Colombian voters will go to the polls on May 31 to choose from 14 different presidential candidates, including Cepeda and conservatives Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia.
While Cepeda has favored a continuation of Petro’s “total peace” strategy, his conservative rivals have said they favor more military pressure on rebel groups before resuming peace talks.
Guzmán said that while this weekend’s attacks had “deepened discomfort” with the security situation in Colombia – where a presidential candidate was killed last year – both sides would try to capitalize on this new wave of violence.
“Government supporters will use the attack as an opportunity to say that this is why we need to make an urgent deal with the (rebel) groups,” Guzman said. “Critics will therefore say we need to attack them more aggressively.”
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